MORE STICKS, AND THE ODD CARROT

 

 Artículo de  “The Economist” del 19/01/2005

 

Por su interés y relevancia, he seleccionado el artículo que sigue para incluirlo en este sitio web. (L. B.-B.)


As Condoleezza Rice attends hearings that should lead to her being confirmed as America’s new secretary of state, a report suggests America may be preparing to attack Iran. What will be the dominant theme of George Bush’s second-term foreign policy?

 

LOVE it or loathe it, the Bush administration wins full points for foreign-policy boldness. Entering his second term on Thursday January 20th, President George Bush, many think, should feel chastened by his record in his first four years. In particular, he has embroiled America in a conflict in Iraq that has become bloodier and more difficult than anyone in the administration imagined.

But a report this week in the New Yorker magazine by Seymour Hersh, an investigative journalist, suggests that Mr Bush and those close to him are feeling far from gun-shy going into his second term. Mr Hersh alleges that the Pentagon, usurping a role formerly held by the CIA, has begun a series of covert operations of which it will report only the most general details to Congress. Most explosively, the article alleges that America already has commando teams operating inside Iran, scouting targets for a potential strike on the Islamic republic’s nuclear facilities. America is convinced that Iran has a secret nuclear-weapons programme, though Iran insists its nuclear dabblings are for civilian purposes only.

The Pentagon was quick to issue a press release saying that Mr Hersh’s article was “riddled with errors”. But it did not deny the central claim of stepped-up covert activity run from the Pentagon. And Iran seems to be taking the threat seriously: its defence minister talked up the deterrent power of Iran’s conventional military in comments published in a newspaper on Tuesday.

This storm broke just as Condoleezza Rice, Mr Bush’s national-security adviser during his first term, was beginning confirmation hearings to become the new secretary of state. Ms Rice, who is almost certain to be confirmed, will replace the doveish, multilateral-minded Colin Powell. Mr Powell was seen as getting on poorly with other cabinet members, especially Donald Rumsfeld, the defence secretary, and Dick Cheney, the vice-president, and he often seemed to have little influence on Mr Bush. Ms Rice, by contrast, has for some time been the president’s closest adviser and is a personal friend.

How will she affect foreign policy? Before Mr Bush was elected, she was known as a “realist”, more concerned with power and security than with using American might to democratise other countries. It is hard to know if she has changed her views in office, as her advice is given to the president behind the scenes. But in her opening statement in her confirmation hearings, she spoke out strongly for Mr Bush’s vision of spreading democracy. She said that the president had broken with the habit of “excusing and accommodating” the lack of democracy in the Middle East, and that pushing democracy would be a big part of relations with Russia.

So, Ms Rice has made clear that she intends to back Mr Bush’s neo-conservative-inspired dream of democratic transformation in strategically important countries that are currently run by autocrats. But the hard-headed “realists”, strong believers in the notion of credible threats, also have reason to be pleased. Only this week, Mr Bush refused to rule out military action against Iran. America also intends to keep up the pressure on North Korea, another nuclear renegade which, the realists believe, understands nothing but power.

Even the multilateralists are hopeful, despite Mr Powell’s departure. Robert Zoellick, America’s trade representative, who has extensive experience negotiating with the European Union and other key trading partners, has been nominated to be Ms Rice’s deputy secretary of state. And Mr Bush himself has praised the Europeans’ painstaking negotiations with Iran over its uranium-enrichment programme.

 

Get real

But can the realists, neo-conservatives and multilateralists all be made happier in a second Bush term? There are numerous internal inconsistencies. The internationalist types will note that credible reports of secret raids into Iran are sure to irritate the Europeans, who will feel that their diplomacy is being undercut. The neo-conservatives must resign themselves to the fact that, in the next four years as in the past four, America will need to cosy up to non-democracies, such as Pakistan and Uzbekistan. And the realists no doubt worry that any strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities could embroil America in a larger conflict with that country—at a time when America’s forces are already heavily committed in Iraq and Afghanistan, and facing down a threat from Kim Jong Il's Hermit Kingdom.

Ms Rice has indicated that she will seek to bring the State Department’s worried diplomats peacefully round to Mr Bush’s way of thinking, rather than seeking to break their backs. But they may be sobered by seeing what has happened at another unruly agency, the CIA. Its new boss, Porter Goss, has signalled that no more will the agency’s spies and analysts undermine Mr Bush’s policies with pessimistic reports or self-justifying leaks to the press.

A forthcoming review will recommend whether the CIA’s covert paramilitary operations should be given to the Pentagon. According to Mr Hersh, the result is a foregone conclusion: the indefatigable and apparently unsackable Mr Rumsfeld will see his empire grow at the expense of the CIA. Last-minute changes to the wording of a new intelligence-reform bill, signed by Mr Bush last month, have been taken by many to mean that the Pentagon will keep ultimate control over roughly 80% of the intelligence budget. No wonder morale at the CIA is said to be in the pits.

What does all of this say about the shape of foreign policy in the second Bush term? The president seems to hope that by promoting both Ms Rice and Mr Goss and by shepherding through the intelligence-reform bill, he can make the State Department and the CIA more loyal to the White House; and that this, combined with offering countries like Iran and North Korea a bunch of sticks and a few carrots, will make American policy towards the outside world more coherent and effective. Will it work? From Paris to Pyongyang, the answer is awaited with bated breath.