Contagion: Popular Risings in Former Soviet Zone

 

 Artículo de STEVEN LEE MYERS  en “The New York Times” del 25/03/2005

 

Por su interés y relevancia, he seleccionado el artículo que sigue para incluirlo en este sitio web. (L. B.-B.)

 

In the first decade after the collapse of the Soviet Union, democracy took root in most of its republics in name only. With the exception of the Baltic republics - Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia, now deeply entwined in Europe - new political systems and new leaders emerged from the post-Soviet chaos promising freedoms but somehow managing to ensure that those freedoms led to the continuation of their power.

But in the last year and a half, popular uprisings have claimed the sclerotic leadership of three former Soviet republics. In Georgia in November 2003, in Ukraine a year later and now in Kyrgyzstan, simmering discontent accomplished what not long ago seemed improbable: the peaceful overthrow of governments that ceased to represent the will of the people.

What is most surprising is how quickly those governments fell when faced by protesters asserting the rights they had been promised when the Soviet yoke was lifted: the right to express themselves, to elect their representatives, to dream of the better life their leaders promised but too often failed to deliver.

For opposition leaders and even for some of those in power in other republics, the events that began in Georgia with the toppling of Eduard A. Shevardnadze and continued with the extraordinary challenge to a fraudulent election in Ukraine last fall have come like a contagion, spreading in fast and unpredictable ways.

Nowhere is the fear and anticipation greater than in the largest and most powerful republic, Russia. There, President Vladimir V. Putin has steadily strengthened state control even as he presents himself as a democrat.

"People are tired everywhere," Aleksandr Rondeli, president of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, said in a telephone interview from Georgia's capital, Tblisi, referring to the popular discontent. The uprisings in Georgia and Ukraine, he added, showed what was possible. "They saw how easy it looked on TV," he said.

President Askar A. Akayev, leader of Kyrgyzstan throughout 13-plus years of post-Soviet independence, fled the capital, Bishkek, after throngs protesting what they called fraudulent parliamentary elections stormed government buildings and his security forces evaporated.

Like Mr. Shevardnadze and President Leonid D. Kuchma of Ukraine, Mr. Akayev appeared to believe that the state's authority could dictate the terms of a nominally democratic process to favor chosen candidates.

Whether the democratic contagion will spread remains to be seen. Belarus and Turkmenistan have become dictatorships to different degrees, squelching political opposition and tightening the screws over most parts of society.

President Saparmurat Niyazov of Turkmenistan had his Parliament declare him president for life. President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus last fall orchestrated a referendum that would allow him to run for re-election indefinitely.

Andranink M. Migranyan, a professor and political scientist at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, said challenges to power in former Soviet republics depended in large degree on the willingness of the authorities to use force.

Consistently, he said, the leaders who have at least nominally presented themselves as democrats have proved unable to preserve themselves through democratic means.

"You must either be more adamant in using force and destroying the opposition or let others come to power," Mr. Migranyan said in a telephone interview. "The difference between Akayev and Lukashenko is that Akayev is more democratic. And he is the loser."

Russian leaders reacted to events in Georgia and Ukraine with shock and apprehension, even disdain.

President Putin, who himself is accused of tightening control over what is left of a democratic system, openly supported Mr. Kuchma's handpicked successor. He has cultivated ties with the autocratic leaders of the Central Asian states, seemingly indifferent to accusations that their rule amounts to authoritarianism.

Stung by criticism of Russia's role in Ukraine's elections, Mr. Putin and other officials kept a much lower profile as Kyrgyzstan's parliamentary elections unfolded. As the unrest mounted, though, Russian officials began to appeal for order and stability - meaning the status quo - while criticizing those who were calling for democracy.

Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov warned yesterday of "the consequences than can evolve from attempts to come to power by illegal means." Not coincidentally, perhaps, rumors have swirled in Russia about Mr. Putin's own political future in the wake of the recent upheavals in the former Soviet neighborhood. Mr. Putin was re-elected to a second and, according to the Constitution, final, term as president last year.

Despite his repeated assertions to the contrary, commentators have speculated that the Kremlin is considering ways he may yet remain in power after 2008.

At the same time, voices of opposition have emerged. Garry Kasparov, the chess champion, resigned from the game to devote himself to ensuring that Mr. Putin does not run again. Mikhail A. Kasyanov, the former prime minister under Mr. Putin, emerged publicly to say he was prepared to support the opposition, which remains in disarray but may yet find its cause.