From the Council on Foreign Relations, August 19, 2003
Who's behind the escalating terror attacks in Iraq?
No group has claimed responsibility for the August 19 bombing of the United Nations headquarters in Baghdad that killed the head of the U.N. mission in Iraq, Sergio Vieira de Mello, and about 20 others-- but there is no shortage of suspects, terror experts say. Among them: terrorists from Ansar al-Islam, an affiliate of al Qaeda; Islamist fighters from Saudi Arabia, Syria, Yemen, or other nations, Iranian agents and affiliates; and Baathists or other holdouts from Saddam Hussein's regime.
How have the attacks changed in recent weeks?
Until the August 7 truck bombing of the Jordanian Embassy in Baghdad that killed 17, the attacks were relatively small-scale. Typical attacks included mortar rounds and grenades fired at coalition military convoys and facilities, mines and improvised devices exploded in roadways, and gunfire aimed at individual U.S. soldiers and others associated with occupation forces. The Jordanian Embassy and U.N. headquarters bombings indicate a shift to more sophisticated terror tactics and a willingness to hit so-called "soft" targets, which are non-military and often occupied by civilians.
What other attacks appear to be part of this new trend?
Recent acts of sabotage against Iraq's civilian infrastructure, which appear to be broader in scope than earlier ones. An August 17 attack blew a hole in Baghdad's primary water main; an earlier attack severely damaged a key oil pipeline that carries fuel from Iraq's northern oil fields to Ceyhan, an oil storage and shipping port in Turkey.
Does it appear that the same group could be behind all of these attacks?
Experts caution that these recent attacks could be the work of different groups, and not necessarily coordinated. If they are being conducted by outsiders, it's a huge problem for coalition forces, because Islamist terrorists, unlike the Iraqi people themselves, have no stake in seeing local conditions improve, said Tom Sanderson, a terrorism expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Why would the United Nations have been targeted?
The motives are not known. However, it is clear that the terrorists intended to hit a high-profile target, probably to "create a sense of momentum on the ground" to encourage other terror attacks, said Matthew Levitt, an expert on terrorism at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. The building that houses the U.N. offices, the Canal Hotel, is also a "target of opportunity," says Levitt, far easier to strike than the heavily protected military facilities of U.S. forces. Experts also point out that some Islamist terrorists believe that any organization that does not favor the establishment of Islamic religious rule in Muslim countries can be considered an enemy.
What may be the result of the August 19 attack?
The attack on the United Nations, which viewed itself as a neutral third party acting only to help the Iraqi people, will likely have at least two results. First, it will require the United Nations to tighten its security measures for Iraq-based U.N. personnel. Second, it may help convince Arab nations and other opponents of the war that the people attacking targets in Iraq are not "freedom fighters," but killers from whom no one, no matter how well-intentioned, is safe, said Rachael Bronson, a senior fellow and the director of Middle East and Gulf Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. "It has been very easy to view the saboteurs as freedom fighters, but this kind of attack on the United Nations is going to take that kind of talk out of the discourse. This may begin to turn the rhetoric and dialogue toward one of terrorism," she said.
What are the signs that the attacks could be coordinated by Ansar al-Islam?
Kurdish and U.S. officials say they believe that some 300 members of the Islamist group, which is alleged to have ties to al Qaeda, survived the late-March coalition bombing of their compound in northern Iraq and fled to Iran. Over the last month, some 150 fighters are believed to have filtered back into the country. Dana Ahmed Majed, the director of Kurdish security forces, told The Boston Globe that he believes the group is organizing cells in Baghdad and in the northern cities of Kirkuk and Sulaimaniya. Ansar al-Islam, some terror experts say, appears to be forming the backbone of the growing group of jihadist fighters gathering in Iraq. But other experts stress that not all Islamist terrorists now believed to be in Iraq are linked directly to Ansar al-Islam.
Who is the leader of Ansar al-Islam?
Mullah Mustapha Kreikar, who has political asylum in Norway. From exile, he is continuing to preach the mission of jihad against perceived opponents of Islam. In an interview August 10 with LBC, the Lebanese satellite television channel, he said that the fight in Iraq would be the culmination of all Muslim efforts to restore the Islamic caliphate, which collapsed, along with the Ottoman Empire, in the early 20th century. "There is no difference between this occupation and the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan in 1979," he said, according to a New York Times translation.
What are the links between Ansar al-Islam and al Qaeda?
Ansar al-Islam is a Qaeda affiliate, which means it accepts funding and other resources from al Qaeda and, in exchange, carries out terrorist missions approved or sought by high-level organizers of the terror group, says Jonathan Schanzer, an expert on Qaeda affiliates at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. A recently released White House document called "Results in Iraq: 100 Days Toward Security and Freedom," says that "senior al Qaeda associate" Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and Ansar al-Islam together established facilities in northern Iraq that "were, before the war, an al Qaeda poisons/toxins laboratory."
What other groups could be behind the attacks?
U.S. and Kurdish officials have captured Islamic fighters--reportedly from Syria, Saudi Arabia, and Yemen--as they were being smuggled across the Syrian-Iraq border. "What we're seeing now is jihadis coming in from all over, from Albania to Algeria," Vincent Cannistraro, a former CIA counterterrorism chief, told the Los Angeles Times. "They're answering the call from [Osama] bin Laden, not to defend Saddam, but to defend Islam," he said, adding that U.S. and allied intelligence officials believe that 500 to 600 of these foreign fighters have entered Iraq.
In addition, there appear to be groups of homegrown Islamist fighters cropping up in Iraq. The pan-Arab satellite channel Al Arabiya last week aired a video depicting five men, apparently Iraqis, who called for attacks against the Americans to free the country from occupation. They claimed to represent three unknown groups: White Flags, Muslim Youth, and the Army of Mohammed.
What about Baath Party loyalists?
While the August 19 bombing seems to be the work of Qaeda-style terrorists, experts say it is impossible to rule out the involvement of Baathists, who may have made common cause with the Islamists. There are an estimated 100,000 unemployed former members of the Iraqi security services concentrated in the pro-Saddam "Sunni triangle" region north of Baghdad. Suspicions, in particular, center on men who worked for Muhammad Khtair al-Dulaimi in the Special Operations Directorate, the branch of the Iraqi secret service that specialized in remote-control bombings, poisonings, and other operations. The former chief is at large and is suspected of putting his employees to work against the Americans, an intelligence source told The New York Times.
What can be done about the terror attacks?
Coalition forces continue to hunt down remnants of the Saddam regime and extremists. Some analysts have called for deployments of additional troops to provide security; the Bush administration has resisted that idea. Sealing and patrolling the borders with Iraq's neighbors would be one obvious anti-terror step--but given the length of the borders, the limited size of the coalition force, and the lack of cooperation from some of Iraq's neighbors, such a step may not be immediately possible.