WHY THE GULF LOOKS TO AMERICA

 

  Artículo de Borut Grgic en “The International Herald Tribune” del 29.01.2004

 

 

European Security Strategy

 

DUBAI.  A recent debate held in Abu Dhabi on the future challenges to the Gulf pointed up a striking divergence between the new European security thinking adopted in Brussels in December and the realities in the region.

 

While the European Security Strategy, drawn up by the European Union's foreign policy chief, Javier Solana, makes much fuss over an engaged and active European role in the region, the strategic formulas actually discussed in the region almost exclusively hinged upon American security guarantees.

 

Why this discrepancy? Some of it probably has to do with the internal European debate, which is too bureaucratized and cluttered with interests that distort more than clarify the reality on the ground. To this effect, European efforts to put forth a common security and foreign policy has become an exercise in balancing interests of individual EU member states rather than a comprehensive debate on security challenges and needs.

 

It is striking how force-averse the Solana security document is, when, in fact, the Gulf states are desperate to include military guarantees from allies (read America) into their security combinations. They realize that on their own they are defenseless against regional nuclear powers like India and Pakistan, notwithstanding increases in defense spending.

 

Not to mention Iran. Tehran's efforts to acquire nuclear weapons have sent shock waves through a region that traditionally mistrusts Iran. Undoubtedly, a nuclear Iran would disrupt the balance of power on the Gulf peninsula while posing a serious challenge to the security of the region's natural resources.

 

One possible response to this threat would be for Saudi Arabia to develop its own weapons of mass destruction. But this is a Pandora's box no Gulf state wants to open. Instead, the emphasis has been on getting American security guarantees. The leaders of the Gulf region want American troops to stay.

 

Where is Europe in this picture? Not present, and for an obvious reason. As a community, it does not have the capacity or the will to deploy and sustain troops outside Europe for prolonged periods of time. At the same time, its political leverage - for all it's worth - is a poor substitute for hard power.

 

The next obvious challenge to the security structure of the Gulf is the future of Iraq. Whether Iraq stays in one piece, disintegrates into three or is held together by a loose federal structure matters to the stability and territorial integrity of states like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, but also to the states of the lower Gulf. Here again, it is American power that is relevant, not European. In fact, the role of the latter - primarily because of French and German opposition prior to the war - has been totally marginalized in this debate.

 

Finally, Europe's role as a security player in the Gulf region hinges on its ability to exert real influence over the Israel-Palestine conflict. Again, Europe is limited. While the Old Continent tends to cater to Palestinian interests, its ability to play a mover in the Middle East peace process is limited - mainly because Israel doesn't take Europe seriously. Leaders of the Gulf know this.

 

Limited and at times controversial engagement by the Bush administration aside, America is far better positioned to bring the conflict to a close.

 

The problem is obvious: Europe is not serious about the use of force in an area where force is still necessary. As such, 21st century America is a much more credible and appropriate security partner to the Gulf region than 21st century Europe. If this reality also translates to other security theaters, Europe is obviously missing the point.

 

Europe's overwhelming commitment and emphasis on international laws and rules is noble, but unrealistic. If Europe is ever to translate its ambitions into real security projects, it needs to take its military development far more seriously. Without that, the Gulf officials will continue respectfully meeting their European counterparts - the way Sheik Khalifa bin Zayed al Nahyan, Abu Dhabi's crown prince and deputy supreme commander of United Arab Emirates, recently met the French foreign minister, Dominique de Villepin - but will always prefer to make their security deals with the Americans.

 

The writer is nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council in Washington.