A SHIITE CLERIC'S CAUTION

 

  Artículo de David Ignatius en “The Washington Post” del 19.09.2003


 BEIRUT -- The Bush administration hoped its invasion of Iraq would produce a shock wave of democracy in the Arab world. But when you look at what America has actually wrought, the real earthquake is the new power of Iraq's long-oppressed Shiite Muslim majority.

Shiites throughout the Arab world have been emboldened by the fact that their co-religionists control the transitional 25-person Governing Council in Iraq and are almost certain to win elections that are likely in 2004. Some analysts tout Iraq as the Shiites' biggest political victory in the 1,200 years since they split from the Sunni branch of Islam.

But a leading Lebanese Shiite religious leader, Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah, cautioned in an interview here this week that Iraqi Shiites should proceed cautiously and avoid any quick political transition that might exacerbate Sunni fears that they will be victimized in the new Iraq.

"My advice to Iraqis is to stay away from all who want to start making trouble between the Sunni and the Shia," Fadlallah said, speaking through a translator. "We call on Iraqis to solve problems in a peaceful way. Iraq is not a country of Shia alone or Sunni alone, it's a country for everyone. They have to cooperate to solve its problems."

Rather than transferring political power quickly to the Shiite-led Governing Council, Fadlallah said he favored a more gradual transition under the auspices of the United Nations. "Iraqis have nothing against the U.N.," he said. "If the U.N. receives international support, there won't be any problem. Iraqis will receive it in a good way."

Fadlallah's comments are important because he is regarded as the spiritual leader of Iraq's Dawa Party, which for several decades fought an underground resistance against Saddam Hussein's rule. Born in Iraq himself, Fadlallah is related to the late Ayatollah Mohammed Bakir Hakim, who was assassinated in Najaf last month.

The Shiite leader's cautious line will be welcome news to Sunni Muslims who fear the Arab world will be destabilized by a Shiite-dominated Iraq. "It's as if the Americans are making the Sunnis pay the price for Saddam Hussein, rather than the Baathists," worries one prominent Sunni politician. He warns that any sudden move by the United States to lock in Shiite power could trigger a civil war in Iraq.

The Lebanese cleric underlined his go-slow theme by refusing to endorse calls for an immediate transition to an Iraqi provisional government or for a quick withdrawal of U.S. troops. His response to both questions was that they were complicated issues that required "careful study."

"The Governing Council doesn't have the means to manage the state," he said. He urged careful deliberation "before choosing the Iraqis who will rule."

As for a quick pullout of American troops, he said: "We have to study this case. We can't just give a verdict and say what to do." But he noted that if the American occupation troops can't provide security and stabilize the country, "What's the difference, whether America stays or goes?"

Other Arab leaders quietly worry about a sudden American withdrawal, however much they criticize America's poor performance in postwar Iraq. "If the Americans left it would be a disaster for Iraq. Everyone knows that," says a top Lebanese official.

For all of Fadlallah's caution about Iraq, he is sharply critical of United States actions there. "There is some kind of confusion among American officials in Iraq," he said. Rather than having a clear structure for rebuilding the country, "the Americans are drafting their plan through experimentation."

The trial-and-error nature of the occupation had added to Iraqi anxieties, Fadlallah argued. Convinced that Americans couldn't provide security, the Iraqis began arming themselves -- adding to the lawlessness of recent months.

The Americans made a devastating blunder when they dismantled the Iraqi state bureaucracy in the name of de-Baathification, Fadlallah said. America couldn't take over the functions of the state, and neither could the former exile leaders who run the Governing Council.

Fadlallah was especially critical of the CIA, arguing that it should have better information about terrorist attacks such as the one that killed Ayatollah Hakim. "I don't know what is the role of American intelligence spread throughout the world if it fails to discover the Iraqi quagmire," he said.

The Shiite leader's comments are the latest sign of a remarkable transformation. Twenty years ago, he was seen as a terrorist mullah because he allegedly issued a fatwa sanctioning the 1983 truck bombings that destroyed the U.S. Embassy and Marine barracks here. He survived a subsequent assassination attempt by Lebanese intelligence officers, apparently undertaken with the knowledge of William Casey, the CIA director at the time..

Now Fadlallah is proffering moderate political advice and critiquing the CIA's performance. U.S. officials should hope that Iraqis pay attention to what he says.