Editorial de “The New York Times” del 12.09.2003
No one who witnessed the first years of Israeli-Palestinian reconciliation will forget them — the tentative embraces, the joint patrols and business ventures, the mutual visits by ordinary citizens. Tomorrow marks the 10th anniversary of the handshake and signature by Yitzhak Rabin and Yasir Arafat on the South Lawn of the White House, a luminous moment of hope that turned into a vicious tangle of mutual disdain symbolized by yesterday's ill-conceived announcement by Israel that it was planning to expel Mr. Arafat. The problem all along has been that certain things never changed — anti-Israel terror and incitement on the Palestinian side, extensive Jewish settlement building in the West Bank and Gaza Strip by Israel. Together, they have brought the process to its knees.
The two are not equivalent. You cannot equate blowing up children on a bus with building on land someone else considers his. But you needn't do so to recognize that the one step Israel can and must take now is to freeze the construction of settlements and dismantle the newer settler outposts. This is the necessary course not only because the American-sponsored peace plan, or road map, requires it, and not only because such a move might drive the Palestinians to do something significant on their side, like arrest or disarm a few terrorists. Ending settlement in the occupied lands is central to the survival of the Jewish state.
Consider the cost. At a time when Israel is suffering soaring unemployment, a slashing of welfare benefits and a crisis in its state education budget, it is devoting hundreds of millions of dollars to the roads, housing and security needed for 235,000 settlers. They enjoy mortgage subsidies, aid to build and maintain schools and clinics, and whole army units for their defense, since they are such ripe targets for terrorists.
The real argument lies in the demographics, which become crushingly clear for a state that seeks to define itself as Jewish. There are 3.2 million Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza, with an annual growth rate of 4.2 percent, among the highest in the world. Because of impressive medical gains over the last 30 years, the infant mortality rate among Palestinians has dropped to 20 per thousand, from 70 per thousand.
In Israel itself, there are 1.3 million Arabs and 5.4 million Jews. This means that the number of Jews and Arabs living between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River — in Israel and the occupied lands — is approaching parity. By 2020, Jews will be a minority. The longer Israelis continue to settle in the West Bank and Gaza, the harder it will be to cleanly divide the land between two nations with separate identities. Talk of two states will end. Two options will remain: an apartheid state run by a heavily armed Jewish minority, or a new political entity without a Jewish identity.
The conclusion is clear. Israel must begin to plan its exit from the West Bank and Gaza not only to permit the creation of a viable, contiguous Palestinian state but to preserve its own future. Polls show that most Israelis understand. They do not want to drain their treasury and lose their children to protect West Bank settlements. At the Democratic presidential debate on Tuesday night, Senator Joseph Lieberman criticized former Gov. Howard Dean for calling on Israel to dismantle most of its settlements. "That's up to the parties in their negotiations, not for us to tell them," the senator said.
We strongly disagree. True support for Israel means helping it see through its pain and rage to its own best interest. You do not have to believe in Mr. Arafat's sincerity or the Palestinians' good will to grasp the need for a radical course shift. You need only understand the meaning of self-preservation.