Artículo de Claude Salhani en “The Washington Times” del 06/10/2004
MIDEAST SPIRAL OF 31 YEARS
Por su
interés y relevancia, he seleccionado el artículo que sigue para incluirlo en
este sitio web. (L. B.-B.)
Thirty-one years after the start
of the Yom Kippur, or the October 1973 War, the Middle East remains a zone of
precarious turmoil.
Today marks the 31st anniversary of the start of the Yom Kippur War, or, as
it was known in the Arab World, the October War. The effects of the war, which
ended in neither clear victory nor real defeat for either side, continue to be
felt to this day. And while much has changed in the Middle East in 31 years, in
reality it presents more of the same.
Here is a
quick look at where the belligerents stand three decades after Secretary of
State Henry Kissinger negotiated a disengagement agreement on the Golan Heights:
Despite its new, young president, Syria under the leadership of Bashar
Assad, continues following much the same policy as his father, Hafez Assad,
according to high-level U.S. government officials, who asked not to be named.
The Ba'ath Party remains the predominant force, and 31 years after the guns
first went into action on the Golan Heights, U.N. troops are still required to
maintain a buffer zone between Syria and Israel, who technically, remain at war.
Israel, for its part, faces the longest-running spate of violence since it
fought its war of independence in 1947. The Jewish state went to war in 1982 in
Lebanon to distance the threat of the Palestine Liberation Organization, but
today the enemy it once fought to dispel from its borders is now within its
borders.
And though the Palestinians managed to get a small piece of turf they can
finally call their own — even if it's not really a state quite yet — the
Palestinian Authority under the leadership of Yasser Arafat has managed to
mismanage the territories practically to the ground.
The Palestinian territories' infrastructure is in far worse shape than it
ever was under direct Israeli occupation, say U.S. and some Palestinian
officials. That is not to say life under the occupation was ever pleasant.
Lebanon, while not directly involved in the October War, is under Syrian
tutelage as a result of its civil war. If the Golan guns have been silent 31
years, occasional fighting continues on Lebanese soil as the antagonists
struggle by proxy.
Egypt, the other main actor in the 1973 war, overall came out of the
conflict in fairly good shape. It managed by negotiations what it failed to
accomplish in conflict — to regain all its territory from Israel. The Sinai lost
to Israel in previous wars was negotiated back through the Camp David Peace
talks and the accords that ensued. Propelled by President Jimmy Carter and
signed by President Anwar Sadat and Prime Minister Menachem Begin, the accords
took Egypt out of the conflict.
Although initially shunned for sitting at the same negotiating table with
Israel, Egypt was gradually accepted back into the Arab world's fold, but not
before Sadat paid with his life.
Since then, not much has changed in Egypt. It too, has a new president,
Hosni Mubarak, who replaced Sadat, but again, 31 years later the status quo
pervades the country. When elections are held, Mr. Mubarak wins them
overwhelmingly.
While Egypt took itself out of the conflict, Syria and Israel remain in a
state of war, as unofficially do the Palestinians and Israel. Back-channel talks
periodically resume, stop and stumble. Lately they have stumbled.
President Bush has chosen not to engage Yasser Arafat — whom he accuses of
being tainted by terrorism — in negotiations. This makes the situation all the
more difficult as Mr. Arafat keeps all his cards — including those directing
security in the territories — close to his chest.
While there is little risk of Syria and Israel resuming hostilities, the
Middle East is a hair trigger away from another war. This time the danger comes
from Iraq's unsettled state and Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons.
While the Middle East "hot zones" may have somewhat shifted in 31 years, now
we face there the prospect of weapons of mass destruction and their possible
transport to the West.
Thirty-one years ago, the greatest annoyance to the West was inadequate oil
for transportation and home heating. Three decades later, that worry seems
marginalized by the threat of a nuclear device or dirty bomb being planted in an
American or European city by Islamist fundamentalists.
During last Thursday's first presidential debate on foreign policy, Sen.
John Kerry touched on a key point when he said he would work to marginalize
radical Islam and not allow radical Islam to marginalize the United States.
A marginalized United States will lack the clout it needs to mediate Middle
East peace. And until a just and stable peace is reached, the region will
continue spiraling into greater chaos.
With the luxury of time on our side, if we step back and compare the Middle
East today with what it was 31 years ago, we find it is far more volatile. Few
countries have really made progress. Yes, Egypt and Jordan are no longer about
to wage war against Israel, and Libya backed off of its WMDs.
However, the expanding danger of Islamist terrorism, the continued activity
of the Taliban in Afghanistan, the chaotic situation in Iraq and the real threat
of nuclear proliferation in the region, leaves plenty of room to believe we are
hardly better off than in 1973.
Claude Salhani is
international editor for United Press International.